The West's energy watchdog said on Friday it was ready to release oil stocks should the market experience shortages following Israel's attack on Iran, drawing criticism from rival OPEC which said the statement would only create fear in the market.

Analysts said OPEC might not see any urgency to shift policy, as the surge in prices was driven by a rising risk premium rather than changing market fundamentals.

Although the U.S. is a net oil exporter, higher oil prices could increase inflation and lower economic growth.

Oil demand growth will remain robust over the next two and a half decades as the world population grows, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Tuesday.

OPEC’s secretary-general projects a 24% rise in global oil demand by 2050 and warns of dire consequences from chronic underinvestment in oil and gas.

Rather, it is geopolitical factors—specifically, escalating tensions in the Middle East—that are unsettling markets and pushing prices higher.

OPEC oil output rose in May, a Reuters survey found, although the increase was limited as Iraq pumped below target to compensate for earlier overproduction and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates made smaller hikes than allowed.

OPEC’s crude oil production in May increased less than called for in the OPEC+ agreement. The five OPEC members that have pledged cuts in the OPEC+ agreement and are now gradually unwinding these cuts had to raise their combined output by 310,000 bpd.

As for the other main ratings agencies, in late May, S&P Global Ratings said it expects U.S. oil and gas producers to reduce aggregate capital spending by 5% to 10% in 2025 “amid global economic uncertainty and heightened oil price volatility, capital discipline, and ongoing efficiency gains.”

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of U.S.-China talks that could pave the way for easing trade tensions and improve fuel demand. Brent crude futures rose 22 cents, or 0.3%,