Crane, D. B., and James R. Crotty. "A Two-Stage Forecasting Model: Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression." Management Science 13, no. 8 (April 1966).
For Linear (Holt) Exponential Smoothing, a level weight near zero implies that the smoothed trend is constant and that an ARIMA model with deterministic trend may be a more appropriate model. For ...
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